Can Biden Physically and Mentally Last All the Way to November?
The short answer is not realistically. Yet that does not imply Biden will drop out. The long answer is complex. So, let’s honestly assess what’s happening.
Lying Eyes
This will be a short post, with a longer Q&Q and concluding thoughts.
For the post, all I want you to do is play the above video, then think about the potential consequences not just for Biden, but also Trump.
It’s much more complicated than it seems at first glance.
Questions and Answers of the Day
Q: Is that video cherry-picked instances?
A: Of course. But it’s also accurate and very damaging given the number and recency of the,
Q: Can Biden Physically and Mentally Last All the Way to November?
A: Let’s be honest. There is roughly zero chance.
Q: Does that mean Biden won’t run?
A: No, of course not. Biden is arrogant enough to do so as long as he can physically stand.
Q: Is there time for Democrats to pick someone else?
A: Sure, there is time until time runs out, even if that means an open convention or a rally around Kamala Harris.
Q: Regarding the Democratic National Convention, what should Republicans be hoping for?
A: Republicans should be praying Biden can last through the DNC on August 19-22 in Chicago.
Q: Does the above video help the Republican cause?
A: No. The video shows rapid deterioration of Biden’s mental and physical capabilities.
Q: What is the real date of concern?
A: There are two. The DNC on August 22 and the election on November 5.
Q: Is there a key date between now and the August 22 DNC?
A: Yes. The first presidential debate is on June 27.
Q: Might Biden flop so badly in the first debate that he is forced out of the election?
A: Yes. If you say the answer is no, you either did not play the above video, you are delusional, or you are a liar.
Q: If Biden drops out, would Harris be the nominee?
A: If it’s after the convention, with Biden as the pick, Democrats will be forced to go with Harris.
Q: If Biden drops out before the DNC would Harris be the nominee?
A: That’s likely, but uncertain, with interesting ramifications.
Q: Might Democrats rally around Michelle Obama?
A: Michelle has indicated that she does not want the nomination.
Q: Might she be convinced otherwise?
A: It’s not impossible.
Q: What happens to Trump’s election odds if someone other than Biden or Harris is the Democrat nominee?
A: No one knows.
Heck, no one knows anything ever regarding elections.
What would happen in the unlikely event it was Michelle Obama vs Trump? Governor Newsom vs Trump? Kennedy vs Trump?
All we can say is that it will not necessarily be good for Trump if Biden dropped out.
However, what would undoubtedly be good for Trump is if Biden performs terribly in both debates but is able to physically hang on until the election.
Q: How likely is that?
A: I don’t know. We can easily see that it’s increasingly unlikely. Play the above video and draw your own conclusions.
People Who Rent Will Decide the 2024 Presidential Election
On April 20, I commented People Who Rent Will Decide the 2024 Presidential Election
Who Are the Renters?
The answer is younger voters and blacks.On average the economy is doing OK. And asset holders have generally fared well in this economy. But averages will not decide the election.
And according to the National Association of Realtors, the homeownership rate among Black Americans is 44 percent whereas for White Americans it’s 72.7 percent.
That’s the largest Black-White homeownership rate gap in a decade.
The cost of rent has gone up at least 0.4 percent for 33 consecutive months. Young adults and blacks are priced out of a home and it shows up in the polls.
Voters under the age of 35 favor Trump. In 2020 they were over 80% for Biden. But they have their limits.
I do not think abortion will swing the election. But it could, in Michigan and Arizona. See The Abortion Issue Comes Alive in Arizona, It Could Cost Republicans Dearly
If Trump cannot win against a mentally and physically feeble opponent, then one way or another, it will be his own fault.
Trump can make many mistakes, including being his normal demeaning MAGA self. Trump needs to reach out well beyond his MAGA base.
His VP pick is also in focus. That will be the subject of a follow-up post.
Meanwhile, In California
In case you missed it, please see Twenty Percent of California Lives in Poverty, What’s Going On?
Newsom for President fans may wish to look closely at that post.